For over two decades, African exporters enjoyed duty-free access to the United States under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Its expiration on September 30, however, ushered African exporters into a new reality of higher tariffs on goods entering the United States, ending more than two decades of duty-free trade.
AGOA, first introduced 25 years ago, allowed eligible countries to sell over 6,000 product lines, including textiles, footwear, agricultural goods and manufactured products, to the U.S. market without tariffs. Yet, the lapse of AGOA exposes how deeply dependent African economies have become on preferential trade agreements.
Without an extension, countries trading under AGOA have begun to face immediate job losses and profit declines, erasing benefits once protected from previous U.S. tariffs. The impact varies across countries, but the broader lesson is that AGOA shielded vulnerable economies from harsh tariffs. Since the Trump tariff, South Africa and Madagascar, for example, faced one of the highest tariffs of 30 and 47 percent, while Kenya faced lower but still significant levies.
Kenya’s apparel sector, built largely on AGOA duty-free access, supported more than 66,000 direct jobs and over 100,000 indirect jobs in 2024, exporting $470 million worth of clothing to the U.S.
But in the two months following AGOA’s expiration, tens of thousands of jobs are at risk. “Companies do not have the sustainability to take any kind of losses,” said Pankaj Bedi, chairman of United Aryan (Kenya), a major supplier to U.S. retailers Target and Walmart. He added that while some buyers have temporarily absorbed costs, the cushion may vanish if AGOA is not renewed.
The Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM) had already predicted that over 50 percent of its apparel factories would shut down if AGOA expired without an extension.
Lesotho’s textiles sector, which accounts for 20 percent of GDP and contributed $237.2 million in exports in 2024, also suffered. At least 12,000 jobs were lost following U.S. tariff announcements and fears over AGOA’s non-renewal, contributing to protests that erupted across the country. Lesotho’s trade minister warns that over 40,000 more jobs are at risk if the trade agreement is not extended soon.
In contrast, South Africa, the largest beneficiary of AGOA, has experienced an economic growth rate of 1 percent, though job losses could not be avoided. President Cyril Ramaphosa warned that the expiration could still have serious long-term consequences.
The Case for Regional Trade
Amid the wave of disruptions, bilateral trade discussions are ongoing, and the United States’ Congress is considering a one-year extension of AGOA under its existing provisions. But trade experts argue that even an extension will not address the vulnerabilities exposed by the agreement’s lapse. They insist Africa must build internal resilience rather than wait for the U.S.
Trade experts like Ms Tayo advise African countries to manage the trade shocks by strengthening partnerships under the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA). Implemented in 2015, AfCFTA allows African countries to trade among themselves with minimal tariffs, providing access to the world’s largest regional market of 54 nations. Economic scholar Bedessa Tadesse suggests that exporters previously reliant on AGOA should redirect orders to regional buyers under the AfCFTA.
Yet challenges remain. Mrs. Rebecca, a Nigerian free trade enthusiast and agricultural entrepreneur operating under the free trade agreement, noted that since trading under the agreement, she has noticed more challenges related to non-tariff barriers.
“Poor transport systems linking farmers to the market, high taxation, and corruption,” Mrs Rebecca told the Liberalist.
The lack of a simplified and unified trading system continues to frustrate exporters, said Dr Alaba Olumuyiwa, Trade Policy and Trade Facilitation Expert. He explained that no West African country wants to single-handedly commit resources to build the system AfCFTA needs to function, adding: “Our system won’t work without investment,” he noted. “Trade agreements alone cannot grow Africa.”
To truly address these systemic issues, Dr Alaba called for the automation of trade infrastructure and the harmonisation of customs procedures, arguing that only a modern, integrated trade environment can protect Africa from future shocks.
