For years, South Sudan experienced a tumultuous political crisis, but a peace deal signed by conflicting parties in 2018 promised to turn the situation around. Unfortunately, recent political tensions and armed confrontations threaten stability, plunging the country into deeper uncertainty.
The latest trigger of the political crisis came on April 2, when Machar-linked White Army militias clashed with government forces and seized a military base in Nasir, Upper Nile region. A UN helicopter extraction was caught in the chaos, leaving dozens dead, including a South Sudanese general and a UN crew member. President Salva Kiir quickly ordered Vice President Riek Machar be placed under house arrest.
When the security forces arrested Machar along with several of his associates, his party condemned the move, saying it was an “unlawful house arrest,” and a government tactic to “derail the peace process and consolidate power through unconstitutional means.”
A Delicate Peace Deal
The 2018 Revitalised Peace Agreement between President Kiir and Vice President Machar set a three-year timeline for the country to hold elections and transition the government to a democracy. But this date has been extended four times—the latest postponement being from September 2024 to December 2026.
While the peace agreement ended a brutal five-year civil war that killed over 400,000 people, the recent developments mean the years of peace among the conflicting parties are close to an end. But since inception, past events show the parties have shown little commitment to solidify the arrangement.
For the past seven years since the peace accord, the foundation of the peace deals has always been under threat. The promises of constitutional reforms, a delicate power-sharing arrangement between President Kiir and Machar, and the formation of a unified national army have remained unfulfilled.
On the other hand, the country has seen repeated extensions of the transitional government and “the country’s national army, the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF), remains largely aligned with different factions and lacks unified command or professional training,” noted the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect.
Analysts warned that the escalating standoff is a significant threat to the country’s relative peace and could return the people to full-scale war, further worsening a humanitarian disaster in a country already ravaged by years of conflict.
Fearing a new civil war, Antonio Guterres, the United Nations Secretary General, urged President Kiir and Vice President Machar to “put away the weapons” and “put first the people of South Sudan.” His concerns are mirrored by Nicholas Haysom, the head of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), who cautioned the country is “teetering on the brink of going full scale into civil war.”
The duo observed that a relapse into violence would shatter hopes for democracy, hinder economic recovery, and worsen already-dire living conditions in the country.
“To the leaders of the country, end the politics of confrontation and vigorously implement the promises you made through your commitments to the peace agreement which is the only legal framework to peaceful, free and fair elections in December 2026,” stated Guterres.
With over two-thirds of South Sudan’s population living below the global poverty line of $2.15 per day and infrastructure across the country barely functional, the present situation in South Sudan is nothing short of a continuing humanitarian emergency.
Charles Undeland, South Sudan’s World Bank Group’s country manager noted the country’s weak governance, high food prices, and conflict, among others, have contributed to increased poverty and vulnerability.
“But I also think that there are real opportunities to improve peoples’ livelihoods,” says Undeland. “Key ways to achieve this goal include better management and utilisation of the country’s resources and fostering a stable, secure environment where citizens can farm, work, and invest in order to provide themselves with a better future.”
